CURRENT SITUATION OF TURKISH ECONOMY

 

Main economic indicators in Turkey have been recovering and stability has been achieved in many areas especially in the last two years. Structural reforms within the framework of the IMF program, EU Harmonization Laws and sector regulations along with improvements in the investment environment have provided a more favorable business environment.

MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

National Accounts

 

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

GNP (billion USD)*

201.4

148.2

180.8

239.2

299.4

GNP per capita (USD)*

2,986

2,160

2,598

3,383

4,172

GNP Growth (%)**

6.3

-9.5

7.9

5.9

9.9

Source: State Institute of Statistics (SIS)
(*): Current Purchasers’ Prices
(**): 1987 Constant Prices

Turkish economy has recorded a very high growth rate in 2004 with GNP increasing 9.9% and GDP 8.9%. Turkey's GNP has risen to 300 billion USD in 2004. Per capita GNP has increased from 3,383 USD in 2003 to 4,172 USD in 2004 while PPP adjusted GNP per capita has reached to 7,736 USD.

Growth Rates of Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product
(% Change by 1987 Constant Prices)

Looking at the GNP by expenditures, private sector expenditures increased by 10.1% while public sector expenditures rose only by 0.5%. Gross fixed capital formation has increased by a remarkable 32.4% in 2004.

GNP By Sectors (2004) (% Share in Total Product)
Growth Rates by Economic Activity (% Change)
(1987 Producers' Constant Prices)

 

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Agriculture

4.1

-6.5

7.1

-2.5

2.0

Industry

5.6

-7.5

9.4

7.8

9.4

  • Mining & Quarrying

  • -1.1

    -8.8

    -4.4

    -2.9

    2.6

  • Manufacturing

  • 5.9

    -8.1

    10.4

    8.6

    10.1

  • Electricity, Gas, Water

  • 6.5

    -2.1

    8.0

    5.7

    6.1

    Construction

    5.8

    -5

    -4.9

    -9.0

    4.6

    Trade

    11.6

    -9.4

    10.7

    8.1

    12.8

    Transport & Communications

    5.1

    -5.3

    5.4

    8.4

    6.8

    Financial Institutions

    5.1

    -9.9

    -7.1

    -6.3

    1.1

    Government Services

    1.9

    1.6

    0.7

    0.8

    1.1

    Non-profit Institutions

    1.1

    0.2

    0.6

    -1.0

    0.2

    Import Duties

    27.3

    -25.1

    23

    22.6

    26.2

    GDP (Purchaser's Value)

    7.2

    -7.5

    7.8

    5.8

    8.9

    GNP (Purchaser's Value)

    6.1

    -9.5

    7.8

    5.9

    9.9

    Source: State Institute of Statistics (SIS)

    In 2004, the growth of industrial value added was realized as 9.4% which has a share of 25% in total GNP. The growth in manufacturing and utilities has been 10.1% and 6.1% respectively, while mining sector grew by 2.6%. Transport and communications sector became the most rapidly growing sector by 12.8% increase.
     

     

    Change in Industrial Production Index (1991-2003) (1997=100)


    Manufacturing industry gained a momentum particularly in office and computing machinery with a 79.3% increase and motor vehicles growing at a rate of 53.3% in 2004.

    Change in the Production Index of Manufacturing Industry by Sectors
    (% Change over the Previous Year’s Same Period)

    Sectors

    2002

    2003

    2004

    Food & Beverages

    2.9

    7.6

    -0.4

    Textile

    12.5

    2.1

    -1.4

    Apparels

    3.3

    1.7

    3.5

    Leather Products

    15.0

    -1.5

    11.7

    Wood Products

    18.1

    -1.7

    17.2

    Paper and Products

    20.8

    9.6

    2.4

    Printing and Publishing

    -8.4

    24.6

    34.0

    Chemical Products

    14.2

    8.8

    16.1

    Plastics and Rubber

    12.4

    15.6

    12.8

    Non-metallic Minerals

    10.9

    10.0

    9.2

    Basic Metals

    10.1

    11.9

    11.6

    Metal products except for machinery&equipment

    0.5

    3.2

    9.4

    Machinery & Equipment

    21.4

    22.4

    31.0

    Office, accounting and computing machinery

    48.4

    9.9

    79.3

    Radyo&TV equipment

    51.1

    19.4

    34.9

    Medical and optical instruments

    14.3

    -4.2

    12.9

    Motor Vehicles

    48.4

    47.6

    53.3

    Source: State Planning Organization

    Employment and Labor Force

    Main Labor Market Indicators

     

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    Civilian Labor Force ('000 people)

    22,031

    23,491

    23,818

    23,640

    24,289

    Employment ('000 people)

    20,579

    21,524

    21,354

    21,147

    21,791

  • Agriculture

  • 7,103

    8,089

    7,458

    7,165

    7,400

  • Industry

  • 3,738

    3,774

    3,954

    3,846

    3,988

  • Services

  • 9.738

    9,661

    9,942

    10,135

    10,403

    Unemployed ('000 people)

    1,452

    1,967

    2,464

    2,493

    2,498

    Unemployment rate (%)

    6.6

    8.4

    10.3

    10.5

    10.3

    Source: State Planning Organization

    Turkey's civilian labour force is 24.3 million people as of end of 2004. Agricultural sector still employs around 1/3 of the labour force although share of agriculture in GNP is just above 10%. Nearly half of the employed are in the services sector and the ratio employed in the industrial sector is 18%.

     

    Public Sector Indicators

    The ratio of central government budget revenues in GNP has increased from 28.1% in 2003 to 28.5% in 2004, while the ratio of expenditures decreased from 39.4% to 35.5%.

     

    Share of Revenues and Expenditures in GNP

    Due to substantial external borrowing from international institutions in 2001 and 2002, the ratio of public external debt stock to GNP ratio has increased rapidly. In 2003-2006, the following measures and policies will be implemented in order to lower public debt stock. Important regulations were adopted in order to ensure fiscal discipline and transparency in public fiscal management. In this framework;

    • a single borrowing authority was determined,

    • borrowing, guarantee and loan limits were determined,

    • the external project credits monitored outside the scope of the budget were taken into the scope of the budget,

    • an approval process was introduced for public external borrowing without guarantee,

    • a risk account was created in accordance with a budget-based fiscal risk.

    Primary surplus target of 6.5% of GNP has been met both in 2003 and 2004. As a result of tight fiscal policy and effective public debt management, net public debt stock to GNP ratio has come down from 91% in 2001 to 70.5% in 2003 and to 63.5% in 2004 reflecting a sustainable debt stock view. The primary target of the program is to further diminish this ratio in the following years.

    Balance of Payments

    Current account deficit almost doubled in 2004 and reached USD 15.6 billion USD corresponding to a historical high of 5.2% of GNP. In 2004, foreign trade deficit was 23.9 billion USD widening 84% compared to the previous year. Thus, the main factor in the rise of the current account deficit was the increase in imports and deteriorating trade balance. Growing economy activity fuelled imports through capital and intermediate goods imports. Exports were also strong however they increased at a lower pace compared to imports. Tourism revenues helped compensating by generating a revenue over 15 billion USD. In the capital and financial accounts, 16.8 billion USD inflow was recorded. FDI remained still at an insignificant level of 2.6 billion USD against the 1.7 billion USD in 2003. Current account deficit was financed mainly by portfolio investments amounting to 8.1 billion USD.
     

    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Million USD)

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    CURRENT ACCOUNT

    -9,819

    3,390

    -1,522

    -8,037

    -15,451

    Exports f.o.b.

    30,721

    34,373

    40,124

    51,206

    66,896

    Imports f.o.b.

    -52,680

    -38,106

    -47,407

    -65,216

    -90,726

    Balance on Goods

    -21,959

    -3,733

    -7,283

    -14,010

    -23,830

    Services: Credit

    20,364

    16,030

    14,783

    19,025

    24,026

    Services: Debit

    -8,996

    -6,900

    -6,904

    -8,520

    -11,258

    Balance on Goods & Services

    -10,591

    5,397

    596

    -3,505

    -11,062

    Income: Credit

    2,836

    2,753

    2,486

    2,246

    2,651

    Income: Debit

    -6,838

    -7,753

    -7,040

    -7,805

    -8,167

    Balance on Goods, Services & Income

    -14,593

    397

    -3,958

    -9,064

    -16,578

    Current Transfers

    4,774

    2,993

    2,436

    1,027

    1,127

    FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

    9,584

    -14,643

    1,161

    7,091

    16,811

    Direct Investment (Net)

    112

    2,769

    863

    1,195

    1,711

    Portfolio Investment (Net)

    1,022

    -4,515

    -593

    2,569

    8,070

    Other Investments (Net)

    8,450

    -12,897

    891

    3,327

    7,030

    Current Capital and Financial Accounts

    -235

    -11,253

    -361

    -946

    1,360

    NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS

    -2,762

    -1,671

    149

    5,043

    2,982

    GLOBAL BALANCE

    -2,997

    -12,924

    -212

    4,097

    4,342

    RESERV ASSETS

    2,997

    12,924

    212

    -4,097

    -4,342

    Source: State Planning Organization (SPO)

     

    Monetary Indicators

     

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    International Reserves (*)
    (Million USD)

    33,751

    34,159

    30,191

    38,051

    44,956

    53,646

    Average Exchange Rate (Buy Rate)
    (TL / USD)

    417,580

    623,749

    1,222,921

    1,504,597

    1,495,306

    1,422,511

    (TL / Euro)

    443,649

    574,345

    1,092,643

    1,428,767

    1,687,189

    1,767,331

    M2RF / GNP
    M2RFY / GNP

    % 33
    % 56

    % 31
    % 51

    % 29
    % 61

    % 25
    % 51

    % 27
    % 46

    Source: Central Bank of Turkish Republic
    (*): Net Reserves=Gold + Central Bank + Banks

     

    As a result of the dedication to the economic program and the structural reforms, a significant success was accomplished in the struggle against inflation. The rate of increase in the wholesale price index (WPI) decreased from 88.6% in 2001 to 30.8% in 2002 and finally to 13.8% in 2004, while the consumer price index (CPI) went from 68.5% in 2001 down to 29.7% in 2002 and to finally single-digit level of 9.3% in 2004. The new Turkish Lira (6 zeros removed) has been launched as of the beginning of 2005. This is expected to further contribute to the monetary stability. The main factors played important role in the reduction of inflation can be summarized as follows:

    • maintaining fiscal discipline

    • implementing wage and salary adjustments in the public sector

    • strict adherence to the tight monetary program

    Source: SIS, SPO

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